How to Avoid Overvaluing Preseason Hype in Fantasy Sports

31 October 2025

Let’s face it—preseason hype can be a fantasy sports manager’s worst enemy.

Every year, we get caught up in glowing training camp reports, jaw-dropping highlight clips, and coach speak that makes every backup sound like the next MVP. But here's the deal—you can't win your league in the preseason, but you sure can lose it.

So how do you dodge the hype trap? Let’s break it down and keep our eyes on the prize: building a balanced, consistent roster with long-term success in mind.

What Is Preseason Hype, Really?

Preseason hype is like eating a double bacon cheeseburger right before a marathon. Feels good in the moment, but come mile five, you're gonna wish you made better choices.

Every summer, training camps and preseason games flood our timelines with highlight reels, coach-endorsed breakout candidates, and glowing player "updates." Beat reporters and fantasy influencers fuel the fire with bold predictions and “can’t-miss” sleepers.

But here's the truth: most of these reports are based on minimal game action, padded stats in meaningless matchups, and narratives that don’t always translate when the real bullets fly in Week 1.

Why We Fall For It Every Time

You know how cereal commercials show the milk splashing in slow motion and the spoon twirling through a cloud of marshmallows? That's what preseason hype is. It’s marketing.

As fantasy managers, we’re naturally optimistic. We want to believe that the rookie we drafted in Round 13 is about to be the next Justin Jefferson. Or that a journeyman running back is finally "in the best shape of his life."

We’re hungry for that edge. But more often than not, acting on hype is like betting on a scratch ticket—you might win, but chances are you're just lighting your money (or picks) on fire.

1. Filter Out the Noise With Context

When evaluating camp reports and preseason games, ask yourself a few key questions:

- Who is this player competing against in practice?
- Were their stats padded against third-string defenders?
- Is the coaching staff being honest, or just trying to build trade value?

Training camp and preseason are often more about evaluation than production. A backup quarterback lighting up a third-team defense isn’t the same as doing it under the lights in a primetime game.

Context is king. A 60-yard TD catch in a preseason game might look great on Twitter, but if it came against a corner who’ll be working at Home Depot in September... pump the brakes.

2. Look at Opportunity, Not Just Headlines

Opportunity is the lifeblood of fantasy sports.

Forget what you saw in one flashy clip—look at how many touches or targets a player is realistically going to get. Volume drives production, not just talent or potential.

If a wide receiver looks great in camp but is still stuck behind two proven studs, you're probably banking on an injury for them to see meaningful work. That's a risky bet.

Instead, dig into:

- Depth chart standings
- Offensive schemes
- Target share potential
- Running back committees

Focus on situation over sensation.

3. Don’t Let “Coach Speak” Fool You

You ever notice how every offseason, every coach claims that their tight end looks "explosive" and the rookie receiver is “surpassing expectations”?

Yeah. That’s called training camp optimism. It happens every single year.

Coaches aren’t trying to help your fantasy team. They’re trying to motivate players, deflect media questions, and keep their real plans under wraps.

It’s all smoke and mirrors.

Take coach quotes with a grain of salt. Instead, rely on consistent usage trends, insider beat reports you trust, and how the team actually calls plays—not just what they say on the mic.

4. Avoid Drafting Based on Social Media Buzz

You’ve seen it:

> “Player X just made the sickest one-handed catch in camp. Draft him ASAP!!”

Stop. Just stop.

Highlight reels are not a basis for your fantasy picks. Instagram clips and viral tweets are designed to entertain—not inform.

Don’t let a clip that lasts seven seconds impact your entire season. It’s like buying a car just because you liked the commercial.

Real value comes from players with proven efficiency, clear roles, and durability—not from TikTok highlights.

5. Stick To Your Research, Not the Headlines

When you walk into your fantasy draft, bring your own receipts. Build your rankings based on data—past performance, strength of schedule, offensive line rankings, and advanced metrics like yards per route run or red-zone usage.

Don’t throw that prep out the window because someone scored a 40-yard touchdown against a defense that didn’t scheme for him.

Remember: you’ve got a plan. Don’t let flashy headlines throw you off the rails.

6. Recognize the Value of Experienced Veterans

Every year, fantasy managers fall in love with the next shiny rookie and overlook boring, proven veterans.

Sure, the rookie might have more upside, but the veteran has the trust of his coaching staff and has already produced in big moments.

Think about guys like Adam Thielen, Kirk Cousins, or James Conner. Not sexy. But productive.

While everyone else chases the hype, you can build a solid foundation with players who still get it done.

7. Watch for Injury Comebacks… Cautiously

Players coming back from injuries often get hyped up as “ahead of schedule” or “fully recovered.”

But fantasy returns don’t always align with medical ones. Just because a guy is back on the field doesn’t mean he’s 100% or ready for a full workload.

Be wary of injury optimism. Players returning from ACLs, torn hammies, or serious fractures might need weeks—if not months—to shake off the rust.

Don’t draft based on best-case scenarios.

8. Focus on Offenses You Trust

Your player might look like a camp star, but if he's playing in a bottom-five offense with a shaky QB and a porous O-line… good luck.

Look at historical scoring trends. Which offenses put up points? Who consistently feeds their studs?

Invest in players from high-scoring environments. Hype is less dangerous when you're stacking players from efficient, predictable systems.

9. Don’t Neglect Positional Scarcity

Let’s say everyone’s hyped about a breakout WR4. Meanwhile, you skipped over a top-tier tight end.

Guess what? Tight ends thin out fast, and now you're scrambling every week while that WR4 rides your bench.

Don’t let hype distract you from taking the best value at positions with less depth. Build your roster on positional balance, not preseason fireworks.

10. Use ADP Trends—But Don’t Be a Slave to Them

Keep an eye on Average Draft Position (ADP) so you know when a player is becoming overvalued. If someone is shooting up two or three rounds based on one camp story, that's a red flag.

Sure, ADP is helpful—but it’s a guide, not gospel.

Trust your gut. If you’ve done your research and still like a player despite the hype, go for it—but do so from an informed position, not just because everyone else is drinking the Kool-Aid.

The Bottom Line: Trust Your Process

Fantasy championships aren't won in August—they’re won over months of smart decisions, lineup tweaks, and injury management.

Don't let a viral tweet or a coach’s vague comment derail everything you’ve worked on in the offseason. Preseason hype is like junk food for fantasy players—it satisfies in the short term but rarely nourishes your roster long-term.

Stick to your strategy. Draft based on opportunity, historical performance, and team fit. Leave the hype for the highlight reels, and build a team that actually competes when it counts.

Bonus Tip: Keep Receipts and Stay Humble

Track the players you faded due to hype. See how they actually performed.

You’ll be shocked how often the crowd was wrong.

Fantasy is part data, part instinct—but when you resist the noise, you'll find your instincts get sharper year after year.

Final Thoughts

At the end of the day, preseason hype is just that—hype. It’s meant to stir up excitement and sell hope. But fantasy sports are about long-term planning, calculated risks, and playing percentages—not emotion.

Let others chase the glowing headlines. You? You’ve got a bigger goal—building a championship-caliber team, minus the fluff.